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Will expansion to 48 teams actually cause the World Cup to have 16 teams worse than Saudi Arabia?
Note: I previously posted this on sports here, and have since updated it to use Elo ratings instead of FIFA’s rating system.
Since Saudi Arabia lost 5-0 to Russia, I have seen several claims that once the World Cup is expanded to 48 teams, it will include 16 teams worse than Saudi Arabia. I decided to test how many teams worse than Saudi Arabia would have qualified for this World Cup if it were a 48 team tournament. I defined a team worse than Saudi Arabia as one ranking lower by Elo Rating than Saudi Arabia (currently 68), and looked at both the qualification results, and the Elo ratings to see which teams would qualify. Throughout this post, Elo rankings are included in parentheses next to a country’s name. Note that I used the current ratings after the games on June 16, 2018, as I could not find an easy way to get the ratings from before the World Cup started. This has the effect of making Saudi Arabia worse than they might otherwise be.
Current - 4.5 Spots
Qualified - Iran (20), Japan (44), South Korea (39), Saudi Arabia (68), Australia (34, won intercontinental playoff against Honduras)
Top 5 by Elo rating: Iran, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Syria (57)
Under the expansion, AFC gets 8 teams, which would add Syria, Uzbekistan (60) and Iraq (70) based on the rating system. Based on the actual qualification results, taking the top 4 teams from each of the final groups would put Uzbekistan, Syria, and UAE (74) in the World Cup, along with the actual teams. Ultimately, this would likely add 1 team worse than Saudi Arabia.
Current - 5 Spots
Qualified - Tunisia (48), Nigeria (48), Morocco (43), Senegal (27), Egypt (54)
Top 5 by Elo rating: Senegal, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, Ghana (51)
Under the expansion, AFC gets 9 teams, which would add Ghana, Cameroon (51), Ivory Coast (59), and Burkina Faso (61) based on the rating system. The actual qualification ended with 5 groups of 4 teams. Taking the best 4 runners-up would add DR Congo (64), Burkina Faso, Uganda (103), and Ivory Coast. Ultimately, this adds at most 1 team worse than Saudi Arabia.
Current - 3.5 Spots
Qualified - Mexico (18), Costa Rica (31), Panama (47). (Honduras lost intercontinental playoff against Australia)
Top 4 by Elo rating: Mexico, USA (25), Costa Rica, Panama
Under the expansion, CONCACAF gets 6 teams, which would add USA, Honduras (63), and Jamaica (66), based on the rating system. The actual qualification ended with a group of six, featuring Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, USA, and Trinidad and Tobago (101). Ultimately, this adds at most 1 team worse than Saudi Arabia.
Current - 4.5 Spots
Qualified - Brazil (1), Uruguay (11), Argentina (6), Colombia (9), Peru (15) (Won intercontinental playoff against New Zealand)
Top 5 by Elo rating: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Peru
Under the expansion, CONMEBOL gets 6 spots, which would give Chile (17) a spot based on both ranking and on qualification results. This adds no teams worse than Saudi Arabia.
Current - 0.5 Spots
Qualified - None. (New Zealand lost intercontinental playoff against Peru)
Top team by FIFA’s ranking system: New Zealand (81)
Under the expansion, OFC gets one spot, which would give New Zealand a spot based on both ranking and on qualification results. This adds 1 team worse than Saudi Arabia.
Current - 13 Spots (Plus Host)
Qualified - Russia (Host, 41), France (4), Portugal (5), Germany (2), Serbia (23), Poland (19), England (7), Spain (3), Belgium (8), Iceland (22), Switzerland (14), Croatia (16), Denmark (12), Sweden (21)
Top 13 teams by Elo rating: Germany, Spain, France, Portugal, England, Belgium, Netherlands (10), Denmark, Italy (12), Switzerland, Croatia, Poland, Sweden
Under the expansion, UEFA gets 16 spots, one of which would go to the host (Russia). Based on Elo rating, the top 15 teams are Germany, Spain, France, Portugal, England, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Switzerland, Croatia, Poland, Sweden, Iceland, and Serbia
Based on actual qualification results, the teams would be the actually qualified teams as well as two of the losers of the second round matches: Northern Ireland (45), Greece (50), Republic of Ireland (35), and Italy.
This adds no teams worse than Saudi Arabia.
Playoff: The expansion allocates the last two spots to the winners of a playoff between 6 teams. Each confederation except UEFA provides one of these teams, and the host confederation gets the last spot. In this case, since UEFA is hosting, they would get the spot.
AFC: Based on ranking, Oman (71). Based on qualification results, China (72). Either way, this team is worse than Saudi Arabia.
CAF: Based on ranking, DR Congo (64). Based on qualification results, Zambia (95). This adds at most one team worse than Saudi Arabia.
CONCACAF: Based on ranking, Canada (72). Based on qualification results, Guatemala (79). Either way, this team is worse than Saudi Arabia.
CONMEBOL: Based on ranking, Ecuador (29). Based on qualification results, Paraguay (36). Either way, this team is not worse than Saudi Arabia.
OFC: Based on ranking, Fiji (148). Based on qualification results, Solomon Islands (163). Either way, this team is worse than Saudi Arabia.
UEFA: One of the remaining losers of the second round matches. Whichever is chosen, the team is not worse than Saudi Arabia.
The playoff contains 3-4 teams worse than Saudi Arabia, and at least 2 much better teams. Likely, the playoff is won by those teams.
Overall, the tournament adds 2-6 teams worse than Saudi Arabia, based on Elo rating. This is a far cry from the 16 teams that some have claimed would be added. This is obviously not a perfect model, but I think it is fair to say that not many of the added teams will be worse than Saudi Arabia.
Edit: Thanks for the Gold!