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In depth analysis of the anounced new skill system
WARNING, very, very long post.
So first things first, the new system, since it alocates skills for each different class, I uhh, think that looks pretty cramped up but we will see how it unfolds.
Maximum skill points number increased from 19 to 21Don't like this too much because following the current formula you will need about 450k cxp for 20 and around 600 for 21, summing a total of 1,050,000 cxp. This is a huge deal because the ability to stock up on cxp will be unavailable unless you bump one of your 19 pts to 21 pts for a heavy price.
The increase of retraining cost is also a bad thing because now that fcxp will be unavailable for some time, grinding tech tree ships will be harder without the use of gold.
I guess it's balanced by dismissing commanders but I feel like there is not much issue over new additions.
Now let's go for the skills themselves, I will go by alphabetical order as they are listed on the spreadsheet.
Bold is a good skill for the ship and italic is a skill that's inferior, no style means its unchanged from what we have now.
Not listing specific stats unless necesssary. You can find the new skills here
CV 1 pt skills
- Aircraft Mechanic (Accelerates aircraft servicing) : We have this one already, no comment.
- Engine Mechanic (Increases engine boost) : No change.
- Engine Technician (Reduces reload time of Engine Cooling) : Basically another boost to speed, not a bad pick considering the cost but it competes with others.
- Damage Control Specialist (Reduces damagecon reload) : Kind of a bad one? Waste of points because by this time you will be sunk by shells if you keep using it anyway
- СAP Specialist (+1 fighter per consumable on hull patrols) : Why? This is a noob trap, I don't see any use for this considering fighters already have high AA damage and low HP
- Patrol Expert (Increases patrol fighter radius) : Another noob trap, no reason to buff your most useless plane, might work to permaspot DDs but again, better stuff to spec into
- Torpedo Bombers Specialist (Reduces arming distance) : A no brainer for CVs with high speed torpedoes and tight spreads, you can basically drop closer now
- Torpedo Armament Specialist (Increases aerial torpedo speed) : The one we have but without the distance penalty. Good for slow torps that converge into a narrow spread
- Engine Expert (Increases plane speed) : We already have this one
- Repair Specialist (+1 repair party + more action time) : Looks good honestly, the +1 alone makes it a must-pick
- Expert AA Gunner (Increases flak dmg + continous AA damage): You will see this one on the rest of the skill trees but this one is pretty garbage for CVs
- Interceptor (Fighters take less time to pursuit but more time to deploy, it also makes the consumable last less) : Fighter skills are mostly useless but this one nerfs your fighters pretty bad.
- Expert Marksman (The one we had but its 7.5% for all planes and is now 3 pts instead of 4) : Looks good now, a shame it does not give dive bombers +15% anymore but the cost makes it decent
- Piercing Armament (Increases AP bombs and rockets damage): Just why? I mean, a must pick for German CVs, IJN CVs and Enterprise but didn't AP bombs got nerfed?
- Pyrotechnist (Increases fire chance of HE bombs and rockets) : Better stuff on the skill tree to pick this, bombs fire chance are pretty high already. Maybe worth on rockets if your strike flight fires a lot of them
- Enduring (Increases plane HP) : No change
- Aircraft Engineer (Reduces continuous AA damage taken) : No change
- Flight director (+1 fighter consumable per squad) : Fighters are already useless, this is basically SI but renamed, still not good
- Navigator-bombardier (Increases dive bomber speed) : You can slot so far with this 4 speed buffs to bombers. Pretty good on german BBs
- Ruthless (Aerial torpedoes ignore 15% torpedo belt) : Another big why? Very good on all CVs
- Close-quarters Specialist (Mansec) : No change but why keep this on the CV skill tree?
- Stealthy (Reduces CV detection, damagecon reload but increases planes time to return) : No reason to bring this, basically nerfed CE for CVs
- Senior Aircraft Engineer (Reduces damage taken from flak) : Another why? Flak is already so easy to dodge, though to be fair this one has no use on CV players that know how to use the keyboard.
- Focused (Increases action radius of fighters, they will only attack strike planes and can only be shot down by AA. Can't spot at all) : This one is pretty garbage, again no use in buffing fighters but this one takes the cake. Can it become a feature instead?
CVs got a total of 8 new useful skills and 8 useless/not worth it skills.
6 skills were unchanged.
AFT, BFT and Last gasp were removed. CE no longer works on planes.
CVs got the most benefited from the skill rework, while 8 of the skills are useless (fighter skills) CVs have the most amount of ways to boost damage and speed. This in fact negates the recent AP nerf an the torpedo reduction skill is ridiculous. There is also the change with the sight stabilization and torpedo arming time.
Not to mention regarding AA we only got 1 new skill (the flak clouds one) and AFT and BFT merged in a single skill but it gets more costly depending on the class. Still overall less cost for these (7 pre-skill rework and up to 4 now)
*** BBs 1 pt skills**
- Loader (Expert Reloader) : No change
- Pyrotechnist (DE but costs a single point) : This can make secondary builds less skill-hungry and this is an overall change, you will see soon enough
- Consumables Specialist (Buffed JoaT and 1 less skill point but no buff to damagecon or repair party): It doubles JoAT effect and also costs a single point. Looked good at first but you want the one below this one (this one buffs DFAA, Engine boost, planes etc)
- Emergency Repair Specialist (High alert + JoAT for dmg con and repair but costs 1 pt) : This is the one BB players will run, it increases survability for a point
- AA Gunner (+1 flak cloud) : Flak is useless these days, garbage pick
- Maintenance Specialist (Preventive Maintenance) : No change
- Gunner (It's EM) : No change
- Threshing (IFHE but costs 2 pts, same effects) : Good old IFHE but it now costs 2pts. Still a questionable choice but halving the costs makes it a considerable pick.
- Consumables Expert (Increases consumables action time but not for damagecon and repair) : Must pick on BBs with utlity tools like hydro or radar (Missouri) good pick for garbage points. No increase for reload booster.
- Argus-Eyed (Priority target but costs 2pts) : Ooof, the skill was probably too effective because it will be 2pts now. Still a must pick but it can hinder the extra 21 points now.
- AA Gunners Training Expert (+20% priority sector AA) : AA is pretty weak and buffig it 20% additive value is not worth it. Survival builds will still be meta, not AA ones
- Vigilance (Vigilance but costs 2pts) : Another buff in terms of costs. For those BBs that can't WASDD
- Armor Piercing (Im putting flat values to see how ridiculous this is. +5% AP shell damage +40% fire duration +40% flood duration) : THis is the biggest WHY on the entire skill rework an my main problem with them. These feel like legmod upgrades with random buffs all over the place and some specific nerfs. No BB should pick this 40% more fire duration is losing around 15k HP with fires while you will deal about 1k more AP damage per shell.
- Secondary Armament Ballistician (AFT for secondaries only and costs 1 less pt) : I told you didn't I? Secondary builds will be less costly. Losing the AA effect though (as if it matters)
- Adrenaline Rush (AR but now 1 more pt costly and buffs AA as well) : I guess it was like priority target, now it will be a hard think to pick this skill or survability skills
- Survivability Expert (Don't get triggered, it's just BoS) : No change
- Expert AA Gunner (The AA skill we saw with CVs but costs 1 more pt) : No reason to pick AA skills at all
- Steady (Increases torpedo protection) : Another survival skill and yes, even in a good BB you will eat 1 or 2 torps per game.
- Marksman (-10% dispersion if blind firing) : Best summary I could give without it being complicated. Screw Smolensk but very situational because if you can see any ship it wont apply the buff
- Secondary Armament Expert (It's nerfed mansec -35% for secondary dispersion) : You can fire on both sides though. Screw german BBs, this is only good on US premium BBs
- Straight-A Artillerist (If you have an enemy in seconary range reduces reload time of main guns and secondaries) : Super weird name but a good pick for any secondary build
- Emergency Repair Expert (+1 damage con +1 repair party and +10% action time of both) : Basically the combined package of buffed JoAT + SI. No better way to see it
- Concealment Expert (Duh) : No change
- Fire Prevention Expert (It's same good ol FP) : No change
8 skills were unchanged.
Survability Expert (+250 HP per tier), Direction Center, Last Stand and Radio Location were removed.
BBs also got a ton of new useful skills but some were increased in cost while some decreased. Overall it's now possible to run a tank-hybrid build but some skills are very questionable (like the AP one)
Cruiser 1 pt skills
- Gunner (EM 1 less pt costly) : Very good
- Torpedoman (Increases flooding chance) : Torpedoes are rarely used as main armament an if you brawl you wanna go for the alpha. Maybe usage on Mino and Zao
- Consumables Specialist (Reduces cooldowns on consumables except damagecon and repair) : 1 less costly JoAT basically
- Loader (It's EL) : No change
- Alarming (It's Incoming Fire Alert) : No change
- AA gunner (+1 flak cloud) : Could see it used as leftover points
- Pyrotechnist (DE but 1pt less) : Good skill for leftover points as a must pick for CLs
- Torpedo Armament Specialist (Torpedo acceleration but no nerf to range) : I mean it got buffed but a very niche pick
- Consumables Expert (+10% action time of consumables except dmgcon and repair) : Big middle finger to Worcester, good skill though
- Spotting Aircraft Expert (Reduces spotter plne reload and action time +2 consumables): Why not buff fighters? Picking this means you are forced to use spotter plane, either way the buffs stack up nicely, no longer 3 min reload but it also lasts half the time
- Argus-eyed (PT nerfed) : It's PT but costs 2pts, it's not a big deal for cruisers thought becuse you end up with more leftover points
- AA Gunners Training Expert (Increases sectoring) : Same as before, don't bother with this
- Demoman (+10% HE and SAP damage +15% detectabiliy on guns bigger than 149mm) : Another meme skill, similar to a legmod upgrae. I hate this skill design. Plus it's a straight buff to Smolensk.
- Torpedoman – demolition expert (+15% torpedo damage) : Very niche skill and costly, not worth picking
- AR (It's AR but costs 3pts) : Two skills had their cost reduced, AR had it increased in return. Must pick and the overall captain points remain the same
- AP Demolition Expert (+7% AP damage higher than 190mm) : No buff for Minotaur. Still good on some AP monsters like DM or soviets.
- Provident (It's SI, unchanged unlike BBs though) : No change
- Enduring (It's SE) : No change
- Straight-A Artillerist (Same skill as above with the BBs) : Too costly and too situational, might be hilarious to use with DM in brawls though
- Brawler (Engine boost buff to speed and -10% dispersion if there are more enemies within your main battery range than allies) : If you feel like your back hurts from carrying games in cruiser, pick this. Other than that another niche pick
- Intelligence Radio Technician (Radio location) : No change
- Threshing (IFHE) : No change
- Concealment Expert : No change
- Expert AA Gunner (Same skill as before) : Did you notice this skill with the same effects has 2pt cost on CVs, 3 on BBs and 4 on cruisers? Not worth picking either way. This skill also got split with DDs, you will see soon.
Preventive Maintenance, Basics of Survability, Mansec, FP, Smoke Screen Expert, Massive AA, Vigilance, BFT, AFT and Last Stand were removed.
Cruisers didn't need a lot of skills back then but they still added a lot while balancing some others with costs. Some skills are very questionable like the HE damage one.
Very questionable they remove skills such as BoS, BFT, AFT and FP considering cruisers are very versatile and it will ruin some buils for DD caliber CLs and large cruisers. Also why Smoke Screen Expert was removed?
*** DDs 1pt skills***
- Gunner (EM but cost is 1pt less) : Good skill for some specific DDs like Shima.
- Torpedoman (+30% flooding) no drawbacks and for 1 point is good on everything that uses torps
- Consumables Specialist (Same deal as above) : Another good skill, specially on DDs heavy on consumables
- Loader (It's EL) : No idea why they kept this
- Maintenance specialist (It's PM) : No change
- AA gunner (+1 flak cloud) : Not worth it again, specially with so many good 1pt skills
- Pyrotechnist (DE but 1pt less) : A nice surprise, will make some builds less costly, coupled with reduced EM
- Torpedo Armament Specialist (Same as TA but no debuffs to range) : A straight up buffed skill, good to have on DDs with slow torps
- Consumables Expert (10% action time of all consumables but damagecon) : Another good skill we already saw on all skill trees
- AP Demoliton Expert (Increases damage of AP shells) : Very niche, will see an use on specific DDs for a bit of damage
- Argus Eyed (Same as PT but 1pt more costly) : A bit of a bummer it costs more but good DDs don't need it. Maybe DDs with smoke.
- Propulsive (It's LS) : No change
- Main battery and AA specialist (This is what I mean by the AA skill getting split it's BFT though but it's been nerfed -5% reload time only) Even after the nerf a goodd skill on any DD
- Torpedo Armament Expert (It's TAE) : No change
- Adrenaline Rush (It's AR) : No change except it costs more now
- Threshing (It's IFHE but 3pts cost) : IFHE but leaves 1pt free. Must pick for Harugumo line
- Provident (+1 consumables) : It's SI, no change
- Enduring (It's SE) : No change
- Main battery and AA Expert (It's AFT which is missing) : On closer inspection AFT and BFT have been merged in the AA skill for the other classes
- Cautious (Engine boost like buff while undetected, permanent +10% reload time on guns) : A good skill for some torpedoboats that need extra speed but not recommended for gunboats
- Intelligence Radio Technician (Radio Location) : People (incluing me) still call this RPF. No change.
- Fearless (-10% gun reload but +5% detectability) : I think another niche pick for some gunboats like Khab or Kleb.
- Concealment Expert (CE) : No change
- Nimble (For the next 15 seconds after being spotted, increases dispersion of enemy shells by 20%) : I see it being good for some getaways or for quick draw duels. A bit costly but has potential
A total of 10 skills were unchanged.
Of relevant DD skills Smoke Screen Expert was removed.
DDs got a lot of options for builds with better skills, although some DD builds will need to think about adding AR for 3pts.
Some changes are nice, some are questionable. Personally I really dislike all the direct buffs to CV damage instead of other parameters (drop patterns, actual fighter skills that don't have riiculous drawbacks, turning radius, regen and reserves, etc) while when it comes to AA skills we got only +1 flak 1pt skill and a fused version of BFT+AFT which costs 2 on CVs, 3 BBs and 4 on cruisers.
I also don't like the skills that have ridiculous drawbacks along with forced buffs, like the AP shells one or the buff to HE/SAP damage.
I know it's all in testing now, but this needs a lot of work, specially I find it overwhelming to introduce all these new skills at the same time for 4 different classes.
Edit: Some corrections to CVs CE, CAP and Mansec for CVs
CTSO - my lotto ticket
Over the last week, I've built myself a position/4 month lottery ticket of 19:1 odds minimum.This post is NOT to encourage others to copy that, but to share my thinking behind it and hope to hear interesting critiques. I may lose all my premium in this position, but its a risk I'm willing to take. As a degen and given my perception of the odds, I gotta do what I gotta do.
The trade is long $CTSO call options and stocks. The post has 3 sections -
- thesis (as concise as I could make it);
- bet/trade structure;
- significant risks/further reading;
- About: Cytosorbents ($CTSO) is a biotech company focusing on blood-purification via blood filters (cytosorbs) mainly for use in cardiac surgery patients, but also in other critically-ill patients.
- Summary Financials: $CTSO trades at an enterprise value(EV) of $280mm/mkt cap of $350mm. They've been growing at 60% yoy growth, with current annual revenues at $30mm, cash-on-hand of $90mm and annualized cash burn of $5m.
- Current WS consensus: Consensus stock price from wall street analysts is $15 (but who listens to them)
- Primary catalyst: The firm got breakthrough FDA designation to remove ticagrelor in cardiac surgery patients in Apr 2020, and the bet is on them getting full approval over the next few months. They already have EU approval for this, and FDA approval will open US markets and increase the total addressable market (TAM) by anywhere between $250million to $1.5billion per year. REMOVE trial results are expected in second half 2020 (topline results expected anytime now as trial is complete), and a positive result should confirm the path to FDA approval.
- Secondary catalysts: Not counting on these, but good to have:
- earnings outperformance (low expectations currently in spite of growth trajectory) - company delivered 60% yoy growth in Q1 and Q2 despite elective surgeries having a slowdown in Q2 (deficit made up by COVID use) and became commercially available in Latin countries in June.
- Biotech sector RV convergence: I notice many biotechs trade on hope and having market cap of $1-2bn, even without any product approval/manufacturing in place. Here's a company growing at 60%, with a product that has been used >100k times across multiple indications with positive results, and has EU approval but trading at such discounted levels. Think its missing a flagship/activist investor who could serve as a microphone for the company.
- EUA (emergency use authorization) for use in severe COVID patients getting extended/broadened;
- Accelerated progress in their HemoDefend product (universal plasma transfer technology that removes restriction on A/B/AB/O donor vs. recipient matching): DoD granted ~$5mm in grants this year - $1mm on Friday itself;
- BigPharma acquisition or collaboration
- Conservative Valuation: Given positive REMOVE results and hence FDA approval, we assume incremental $500mm TAM (lower end of $0.25-$1.5bn), I expect stock to be at $25 minimum
- TAM of $500mm x 0.2 market share = $100mm revenues additional -> $130mm per year
- 75% gross profit margin = $100mm gross profit;
- 2x S&A expenses of $40mm and constant R&D expenses of $10mm = $50mio EBIT
- EV/EBIT of 20 = $1bn valuation = approx. $25 stock price
- If market sees it as incremental TAM of $1.5bn, the stock should do 7x minimum. Further, the approval could be seen as validation for the company and their role in critical care management, and potentially unlocks usage for broader indications (as this is a broad spectrum therapeutic), and bigpharma collaborations.
I am long 330 (x100) call options at strike $15 for 19Feb21. I bought them for approx. $0.5 per contract. If my view is realized, that should mean bet-payoff is 19:1 (i.e. $9.5 profit).
Is this a positive expected value (EV) bet? I don't know, but here's my subjective probabilities:
- Probability of getting FDA/REMOVE news by Feb = 1/3 (breakthrough designation 6 months ago so final approval in 10 months I hope)
- Probability that FDA news is approval = 1/2 (conservative given EU approval and FDA breakthrough approval already + given case results etc)
- Probability of FDA approval, hence = 1/6 (0.33 * 0.5)
Using Kelly's criterion, given the odds and payoffs, I should bet 12% of my bet stack. (If I regard probability is lower by 50% , I should bet 4% of my stack)
I've mitigated some of the risks by also buying some stock since that has no expiry limitations (probability of win = 1/3 since no expiry; bet-payoff with a stop at -50% = 6:1; Kelly's criterion: 22%; with 50% lower probability: 3%)
Kelly criterion is just a starting point, I further took into account how much I am comfortable losing and leaving some dry powder for a pull-back. To start with, I've decided to go with an investment of $17k in options right now, and >$100k in stocks. I will upsize/downsize as I get more news, but that's the position for now.
I'm not willing to imagine what happens if market views it as an incremental $1.5bn TAM. (You're a voice in my head. No, you're a voice in mine. You're a fucking hallucination, why can't I get rid of you.)
- Biggest risk is price catalysts don't materialize.
- I don't have any Dollar Bill connections - so am I not not unsure, lol. (No FDA or CTSO contacts to be clear)
- Illiquid stock/option market and micro-cap risks
- 7% short float and 9 days to cover - is that sizeable for a short squeeze? I don't know
- Further reading:
P.S. - Hope you enjoyed it, and you feel encouraged to share your DD posts.
EDIT: For those interested to play this, think using stocks is probably better than options. Vol is quite high, and options markets are illiquid. Plus you are not subject to expiry limitations/timing issues and the odds are quite good there too. (It took me 4 days to build my calls slowly)