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I Read A Lot So You Dont Have To --- #3

The Week of 1/23/17 Reading Summaries: Up-to-Date as of 1/26/17 2:00AM EST

TL;DR of the TL;DR of the TL;DR: (For those of you who can barely read)

  • Trump Rally:
    • If Trump do good, market go up.
    • If Trump do bad, market go down.
  • Europe will hate 2017
    • Elections in many countries
    • Nationalism rising
  • Philadelphia Manufacturing Index shows growth
    • index explained below.
  • Gold: Depends on the USD and Yen.
    • Short-term bearish.
  • US Fed gonna start selling bonds.
    • No more propping up the market.
  • Oil: Too many factors.
    • OPEC cuts seem to be effective.
    • Short-term bullish (CoT).
  • US labor force is fucked
    • Boomers retiring
  • Trump’s proposed tax holiday for foreign corps
    • maybe not produce econ. growth.
  • Airlines gonna go up.
    • PRASM
  • Obama’s legacy in numbers.
  • No research paper this week

FAQ

Q: Are you the original author?
A: For 85% of the material, no. Remaining 15%, yes.
Q: Why do you do this?
A: Because its enjoyable and helps keep me informed.
Q: Is this a newsletter or paid service?
A: No.
Q: What information sources do you use?
A: Reuters, WSJ, Barron's, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, S&P Capital IQ, Credit Suisse & Vickers.
Q: Where are the links to the original sources?
A: In most of the bold-faced titles there are links. I don’t read this material on the computer so many times I am hunting down a link after printing an article 2 days prior; that’s why some links are missing.

TL;DR of the TL;DR: (Verbose version)

  • Moving into 2017 the market is driven by TRUMP; specifically, will he succeed or fail?
    • The market currently says he will succeed, though I include writers who take both sides for your own interpretation, as well as projections of market movements in different scenarios.
  • DOW/S&P Indices: Some historical patterns show similarities to previous bull-markets that met catastrophe (1999 & 2007).
    • Other data shows improving strength.
  • VIX options with February expiration and 21-22 strikes are in high demand, show sentiment of a market selloff.
    • (But as we see with some users on this sub, people can always be wrong!)
  • Europe: becomes a bigger shit-show in 2017.
    • Brexit leaves massive hole in EU funding.
    • Elections this year with Populist/Nationalist parties advancing in polls.
  • UK: Inflation hit highest level since July 2014
  • Philadelphia Manufacturing Index Shows More Growth.
    • I breakdown the components of the index below.
  • Gold: I include writers who take both bullish and bearish sides.
    • Depending on what data you use to judge, gold could go either way though near-term bias seems bearish.
  • Fed’s Harker: Expect to begin shrinking the Fed’s bond holdings soon.
  • Copper: CoT data shows the trade is overcrowded with commercials holding a net short position.
  • Oil: Current uptrend looks strong.
    • Futures show the market tightening in current price range.
  • Atlanta Fed data suggests Trump’s proposed tax holiday for foreign subsidiaries of US companies may not provide a boost to US economic growth.
  • Shifting Demographics in the US: Could be the “Trump Rally’s” Achilles heal.
    • US productivity back to 1980’s levels.
    • Labor force participation also near lows not seen since 1978.
  • Consumer Discretionary subsectors stand to lose with Trump protectionism.
  • Airlines likely to see medium-term positive equity movement based on expectations of PRASM metric.
    • PRASM = Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile
  • Obama’s Legacy seen through the Markets
    • S&P500 hit all-time records 127 times during his two terms.
  • No “Research Paper Of The Week” this week, writing took too long.
 

Broad Market & My Opinion

Right now, the market is playing a sort of “tug-of-war” with the opposing forces of “risk-on” and “risk-off”.
  • Trump succeeds in passing plethora of legislation = “risk on”
  • Trump fails to be effective and the government gridlock continues = “risk off” During this week we’ve seen the swing between those two points. The week started with skepticism about Trump’s ability to accomplish many campaign promises, though those doubts were soon erased through both Twitter messages and rapid fire executive orders. As long as things look rosy for Trump’s efficacy, I think we can expect the following things:
  • Market rally continues with equities hitting new highs
  • Bonds continue to fall as the selloff resumes after the mid-December reversal
  • U.S. Inflation is projected to accelerate
  • This would likely mean that the Fed would become more hawkish and raise rates more frequently in 2017. However, we run the risk of creating stagflation if rates are hiked without proof of accelerated economic growth.
  • Historical data isn’t totally on Trump’s side, but its also not calling for the sky to fall For all bull markets since 1945:
  • S&P500 experiecned a “pullback” (-5% to -9.9%) once per year
  • S&P500 experienced a “correction” (-10% to -19%) once every 2.8 years
  • S&P500 experienced a “bear market” (-20% or more) once every 4.7 years
  • 70% of all YTD market declines happen in the first quarter of the year
    • 1/3 of them occur in January
  • The Dow moved from 19,000 to 20,000 without seeing a 5% decline
    • Only happened twice before; 1999 and 2007.
All that being said, many people believe that a sell-off would represent a necessary action before a new leg up.
Looking specifically at ETF inflows during 2016, we can see a tremendous spike in December in the post-election frenzy.
  • Blackrock’s iShares ETF’s tracking the S&P Dow Jones brought in $36 billion during the year, including $2.1 billion in December.
  • State Street Global Advisors saw a similar increase in demand during December of 2016. ETF’s that replicate S&P Dow Jones Indices brought in $40 billion, with $14 billion of that coming in December.
Then we have the drastic shift in consumer sentiment readings, showing some of the highest consumer confidence levels in over a decade. Broadly speaking, I expect the “trump rally” to continue as long as the administration can remain ahead of the market’s perceptions.
I mostly trade gold miners and so am bearish on gold for the time being. Bond yields are rising again, on Wednesday or Thursday the 10-yr returned to its early December level, which to me means that the mid-December reversal we saw has played out and is done with.
Trump’s latest announcements about the wall only hurt the peso and give the dollar a further edge. With tomorrow’s GDP numbers, I don’t expect the current market narrative to change.
 

[USD, the Market & Trump]

  • The movement of the US Dollar will be a significant force behind all other asset-classes’ performance in 2017
    • DXY dollar index is up 7% to nearly 1987 levels, however this index isn’t ideal for tracking the dollar’s relative strength
  • Opposing forces on the dollar: Trump has talked about an over-valued USD for months, but many of his proposed policies would serve to strengthen it.
  • Planned fiscal stimulus would prompt Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively in response, and to avoid getting “behind the curve”.
  • This would result in a stronger US Dollar relative to global currencies Big question: Can Trump policies increase the return on investment in the US?
  • No: Dollar down, US equities down
  • Yes: Pick 1 or 2 1) Increased ROI is at the expense of foreign ROI due to American protectionism:
    • Potential global depression, USA stops giving liquidity when necessary 2) Increased ROI is accomplished through tax cuts and deregulation:
    • Real interest rates up, global econ. growth accelerates,
To note: the DXY index overstates the strength of major currencies by assuming the United States does 11% trade with UK, 13% with Japan and 58% with Eurozone. The Fed’s MTP (Major Trading Partners) index calculates US trade with UK at 3%, 7% Japan and 17% Eurozone.

 

What is the “Taper Tantrum”?
-This is a lesson in cross-asset correlations
  • How much A moves when B moves and vice versa
    • Specifically, how strong is the connection between stocks and bonds; when will stocks rise if bonds fall?
    • POSITIVE correlation: “yields down, stocks down. Yields up, stocks up”
    • Negative correlation: “yields down, stocks up. Yields up, stocks down”
    • This relationship can be measured as a "correlation index". This index between bond yields and equities has bounced back and forth between a strong-negative and weaker-negative over time.
    • Almost never does the index go completely positive; however, post-2008 the correlation has become more volatile (bounces more frequently and drastically).
    • 2013 was called the “taper tantrum”, where the correlation index went completely positive.
    • Currently the “rates-equity” correlation index are about to go positive, only ever seen during 2013 and 06-07.
    • If inflation rises, the Fed hikes, bond yields will have a quick spike.
  • If this spike in bond yields is above 3%, taper tantrum shows that the “rates-equity” correlation index becomes positive.
  • If it becomes positive, that means as bond yields go up, stocks go down and the typical 60/40 split portfolio gets fucked.
 
The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index and its Components
  • It is one of many different surveys performed by the US Federal Reserve to gauge business conditions
There are several components to the index:
  • “Current Activities” rose 3.9 points in January, which is one of the highest readings since 2010
  • “Shipping” declined 1.2 points in January, however this was after a tremendous December reading so a pullback isn’t too surprising as it would be hard to maintain the Dec levels.
  • “New Orders” rose to the highest point since 2001
  • “Capital Expenditure” declined 10.4 points, however much like shipping, this reading is still at a point that indicates strong growth.
  • “Employment” rose substantially from 3.6 to 12.8
All taken together, this is considered a bullish report that suggests solid economic growth in the Philadelphia Fed district.

 

[Data from the Federal Reserve in Atlanta on Trump’s Proposed Tax Holiday]
  • Trump has proposed a tax holiday to induce US companies with capital held overseas into repatriating the funds without receiving a penalty.
    • The idea is that these funds will then go to work in US investment.
  • Atlanta Fed data shows that when looking at the foreign subsidiaries of US companies, there isn’t a pile of unused cash sitting idle
  • Claim is that much of the money is already invested and at work in the U.S. through the subsidiary
  • Net result of the tax holiday would therefore be allowing these subsidiaries to return capital to the mothership without a tax-penalty and without significant benefit to American economic growth.

 

Using CoT Data to Read Commodity Sentiment
  • The Commitment of Traders Report shows the positions of big investors in the futures market.
  • With a simple calculation you can turn this into the CoT Index:
    • COT index = 100 x (current Net – Minimum Net) / (maximum Net – Minimum Net)
    • This index then gives you a percentage that shows where current market positioning ranks compared to its recent history.
    • A high reading usually means “overbought” and due for a decline, and vice versa for a low reading. Or if you’re like me you can find an article online that already has the index calculated and explained. This data is lagging, meaning by the time you get it the professionals may have changed positions (though that is unlikely).
  • Currently the latest CoT data suggests a possible bullish sign for gold.
    • Post-election in the gold selloff, the CoT spread narrowed massively; it is finally beginning to widen again, though this could simply be a pause before another downtrend.
 
European Geopolitics Likely To Be Highly Volatile in 2017 (A.K.A. “why I think Europe is fucked”)

Brexit will cost the EU a 10 Billion euro hole in their budget

  • Other countries will have to pick up the slack (these are all estimations)
  • These countries cant afford to pick up the slack -Social unrest is already rampant, spending further government money on something other than benefits for citizens will likely be highly unpopular.
Germany
  • likely facing an increased cost of 3.5b euros/year as it is the strongest economy in the EU.
  • German budget is balanced**
    • Only reason Germany’s budget is balanced is due to unnaturally low interest rates
    • If rates were to rise then a sizeable deficit would suddenly appear Germany holds elections on September 24th
  • Merkel’s party may retain power, the nationalist AfD party is in 3rd place. However, continued stress from the migrant crisis and terror attacks may drive public sentiment a different direction.
**Note: The original article is described above. Below are nfp_count 's points pertaining to Germany in rebuttal:
Even if there is a rate hike up to 1.5% for the 10 year bond, that wouldn't make much of a difference in the budget. The budget has been balanced since 2014, sustaining much higher rates than the current ones. In addition most of the German debt is in 10 year and 30 year Bonds, so there are still a lot of bonds with high rates to be serviced in the budget. Last but not least the there is a strict deficit limit in the constitution and unlike the USA our politicians can't change this limit at will. So overall I would say the 2017 Budget is going to be +-5 Billion EUR, unless there is a major crash (like 2008). Talking about the election it's probably going to be a Merkel led CDU/SPD coalition again, but if anything else is going to happen, then it will be a leftwing coalition of SPD/LINKE/GRÜNE.
France
  • likely facing 1.5b euros/year increased cost
  • France has struggled with debt for years, the EU continues to extend its grace-period
  • 2017 France should be under the debt threshold, only to return over it in 2018 France holds elections on March 23rd
  • Nationalist Marine Le Pen holds lead with 26% of the vote, center-right republicans have near 25%
  • Polls say she won’t win and that its impossible for her party to take control, though we have seen how inaccurate polls can be.
Italy
Italy is really the next Greece in terms of a zombie economy and crippling debt. - Likely need 1b more euros/year - Debt/GDP ratio over 130%. 3rd largest borrower in the world, 8th largest economy. - Only propped up by the negative rates of the ECB - If Italian bonds went back to paying interest at the level seen in 2012, it would cost 5% of Italian GDP
Netherlands
  • Vote March 15th
  • Seeing rise in nationalism/populism as the “Party for Freedom” currently has 29% of the vote
Spain
  • Likely need to pay 700M more euros/year to help cover Brexit shortfall
  • 2nd highest unemployment in EU at over 19%
  • Doubtful that additional spending of this magnitude will go over well with the populace.
Sweden
  • Likely needs to pay 550M more euros/year, that’s the most on a per capita basis
  • Also gained the most migrants per capita in the EU
  • Have to wait and see how this turns out
Greece
  • The posterchild for poor financial management will need to pay around 100M more euros/year
  • Since 2008 the economy has shrunk 25%
  • Unemployment is at nearly 23%
  • Multiple prior bailouts
Romania
  • Similar relationship to Europe as Mexico to US.
  • Likely needs to pay 100M more euros/year
  • Second poorest EU member
  • A massive portion of the citizenry are living abroad and sending money back home to Romania
    • 200k in UK alone
    • Around 500M euros/year of Romanian economy coming from foreign remittances
  • If Brexit negotiations turn ugly, UK can easily terminate these remittances, thus sending Romania into a devastated state
  • We can extend this out to the other former communist nations, meaning the UK has control over likely billions in financial remittances that are keeping eastern Europe afloat.

 

Protectionism From Trump Could Backfire into Stagflation
Author posits that protectionist policies (specifically the Smoot-Hawley Tariff) were pivotal in causing The Great Depression.
  • If we accept this, then it stands to reason that Trump’s proposed protectionist policies could do the same.
  • Smoot-Hawley was meant to protect American interests abroad, until all other countries began implementing their own tariffs
    • Within 4 years import and export trade in the US was down 50%
  • If Trump enacts a tariff like Smoot-Hawley then:
    • Marginal demand for USD declines
    • Value of USD declines
    • Commodities priced in dollars such as gold and oil rise
    • U.S. Treasury securities decline as foreign countries sell their holdings
    • If the Fed raised rates while these events unfolded, we would have rising interest rates without strong economic growth, leading to stagflation.

 

[Under Trump Protectionist Tariffs, Consumer Discretionary Sector Suffers](S&P Capital IQ)

Within the Consumer Discretionary Sector: Leisure products, Home Furnishings, Auto Manufacturers and Footwear would all take a hit as they rely heavily on imports.
  • These subsectors within Consumer Discretionary were already lagging behind the broad market in 2016. Despite record holiday sales, brick and mortar retailers missed most of the rush as consumers went online.
HASBRO $HAS at high risk
  • 49% of all revenues in 2015 were international
    • Nearly all products are produced by 3rd parties in China
MATTEL $MAT
  • Similar to Hasbro
    • 41% of 2015 revenues were international
PIER 1 IMPORTS $PIR
  • The largest specialty retailer for imported home furnishings
    • 58% of 2016 sales came from product from China
[Inflation is picking up, Industrials get Attention](Argus Market Watch)
  • Measures of inflation are continuing upward since early 2015
    • Average hourly earnings for non-farm work rose 2.9% in ’16, from 2.6% in ‘15
  • Non-supervisory workers wages up 2.5%
    • Core CPI up 2.1% in the last year (Higher than Fed’s 2% inflation target)
  • Argus expects the Fed to continue to normalize rates this year.
As economic output and manufacturing activity are expected to increase worldwide, industrial gases may be a sector to invest in.
  • Surveys show global industrial production continuing to rise 2.8% into 2020
  • U.S. Industrial expansion likely to rebound under Trump admin; China industrial growth is improving.
    • Argus recommends “Air Products and Chemicals Inc. $APD” with expectations of EPS +10% in ’17.

 

[Airlines likely to see new period of equity performance based on PRASM metric]( S&P Capital IQ Trends & Ideas)

  • PRASM = metric of airline pricing, passenger yields, down for 21 months in a row
    • But the rate of decline is slowing
  • Airline management shifting focus could point to “positive PRASM” by next year which would be considered an inflection point for these stocks.
    • “PRASM” = Passenger Revenue Per Available Seat Mile
    • Data comes from “Airlines for America”, industry lobbyists
  • In Q3/Q4 reports, some airlines reported their moves to cut capacity growth with a goal of obtaining positive PRASM
    • Historical data shows with PRASM was up year over year, the airline stocks soon followed
  • This entire idea could be scrapped by a deceleration in the U.S. economy, hurting demand for flights, or energy prices remaining low (which encourages airlines into excess capacity growth). American Airlines
    • despite high relative debt levels it has better PRASM numbers
Delta Airlines
  • leads industry in unit revenues
  • attracts more business traffic
    • Delta claims Q1 PRASM looks like it will be positive
Southwest Airlines
  • largest domestic carrier but little international presence
  • not a big concern as international markets are weaker than domestic anyway.
  • Based on PRASM it ought to be near the top of the pack.
United Continental Holdings
  • its 2010 merger was bad which makes its shares trade at a discount to the others listed here.

 

[Insurers Likely To See Growth in Auto Opportunities](S&P Capital IQ Trends & Ideas)

Disregard this entire section if there is a sharp rise in interest rates or sudden acceleration in the development and implementation of driverless cars (which would neuter the auto insurance business).
  • Personal auto insurance accounts for more than 38% of the insurance industry’s annual written premium volume.
    • Loss ratios are up due to more driving (improving economy) and more distracted driving (fucking millennials texting)
    • High loss ratios are bad. Lower loss ratios is good.
  • 10 US states likely to see growth in auto insurance demand due to population growth and shifting demographics
    • AZ, CO, DC, FL, ID, NV, OR, TX, UT, WA
    • These states are expected to see insurers increase policy base by around 13% in 2017
  • Cannot look only at market share of insurers, some of the lower market share players are more profitable with their underwriting in these 10 growth states.
“The Hartford Financial Services Group”
  • Focuses on covering groups like AARP
  • Hartford’s loss ratio in these 10 states = 68.2% versus industry average of 71.3%
  • Trades at a discount to peers, with this expected increase in insurance demand, that discount is not warranted
“MetLife Inc”
  • Largest life insurer in the US
  • Expect it to focus on property-casualty, employee benefits and institutional products businesses.
  • Loss ratio in 10 states = 66.4% versus industry average of 71.3%
“Travelers Companies”
  • Not a leader in underwriting personal auto insurance based on volume, but it has superior results based on profitability.
  • Best in industry loss ratio of 58.5%
 

[Review of Markets Under President Obama]

  • S&P500 had cumulative gains of 148% during Obama’s terms.
  • S&P500 hit all-time highs 127 times during Obama’s terms.
    • Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) under Obama = 12%, behind Clinton and Ford.
  • Since 2009:
    • S&P Composite 1500 rose 154%
    • SmallCap 600 rose 212%
    • MidCap 400 rise 208%
    • Large-cap 500 rose 148%
    • All sectors of the 1500 rose, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Health Care rising the most.
    • Of the 1500’s sectors, Utilities, Energy and Telecom saw the smallest gains (all under 100% under Obama)
  • 136 sub-industries in the S&P1500: only 5 saw cumulative losses over Obama’s two terms: Aluminum, Gold, Oil & Gas Drilling, Education Services and Coal.
  • Every Republican president since 1900 has experienced a recession in their first term in office
  • Obama was in office during the 3rd longest economic expansion since 1900
  • Average 10-year yield was only 2.5% during his terms (Truman = 2.4%, Eisenhower = 3.3%, Reagan = 10.7%)
  • GDP CAGR was highest under Truman (5.6%) and lowest under Obama (1.7%)
  • 2011: S&P500 fell 19.4% and nearly started a new bear market
  • S&P500 has typically risen during the 3rd year of a president’s term due to “reelection-enhancing” stimulus
    • Obama didn’t enact such stimulus, S&P500 fell in 2011 and 2015 as a result.
  • The fall in 2015 was the first S&P500 decline since 1905 for a year ending in 5
For the sake of contrarian opinion, I include a piece that I don’t personally agree with, but that gives a view on a very stark “anti-trump” foundation.
2017 Outlook is Volatile at All Angles
The author presents his predictions for 2017; I see this as a way to gauge what the “Trump Fails” scenario looks like (since the current rally is showing what “Trump succeeds” looks like).
  • Tax cuts won’t cause meaningful growth in firms and infrastructure projects take too long to design and roll out.
  • Based on past trends out national debt should double in 8 more years; 40T by 2024.
  • The market was overvalued before the election, now we’re chasing hopes and dreams.
  • Stocks will be up near-term with bonds falling and US Dollar rising.
    • Reality will set in about Trump and his inability to govern leading to deflation and a slowing economy
    • Market will crash 40% into the fall
  • US Dollar rises to 120 by late 2017
  • Euro to 0.85
  • Deutche Bank fails
  • Gold falls to under $800/oz
  • Oil falls under $30/barrel
As I said above, I don’t necessarily agree with this view but its always worthwhile to take all information into account. I think that the author has fair reason to be skeptical about seeing substantial changes from the Trump administration; however, I also believe that Trump is willing to do things other politicians would never consider, in order to achieve his growth goals. Whether or not that’s a good thing is still up for debate, as is most of the material in this write-up.
submitted by Bulletproof_Haas to wallstreetbets

What if Mercedes was fifteen seconds slower?

Second verse, same as the first...
Two years ago the subreddit was blessed with this 14,000-character monstrosity, in which I slammed Ferrari and Mercedes with a thirty-second time penalty in every race to see what would happen. The result was a tight fight for most of the season, with Hamilton pulling away at the end to win from Ricciardo, Bottas, Vettel, and Verstappen.
In other words, Mercedes were still a little better than Red Bull and penalised Ferrari. But things have changed. Could Verstappen beat Hamilton in a better (relatively speaking) car? Well, let's find out. This year, it's down to fifteen seconds, because a thirty-second penalty resulted in a complete Verstappen whitewash. Ferrari also receives no penalty, because they were barely even better than Red Bull last year.
(Oh, and fastest laps still go to Mercedes if they got them in real life.)
Round 1: Australia
Bottas still secures the first victory of the season, but Verstappen squeaks by Hamilton to put Red Bull ahead of Ferrari in the title fight. Vettel and Leclerc finish miles off the pace, closer to Magnussen than Hamilton.
Driver Pts.
Bottas 26
Verstappen 18
Hamilton 15
Round 2: Bahrain
Leclerc pulls away effortlessly to take his first win of the season. Gasly ends up seventh. Why, oh why, did he ever drive a Red Bull?
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 39
Leclerc 39
Bottas 37
Round 3: China
Verstappen holds on with fading mediums despite a late charge from Hamilton, who finishes just 1.2 seconds back, a few laps too late. Raikkonen is ahead of Gasly...oh wait, that was true in real 2019, too.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 64
Bottas 52
Hamilton 51
Round 4: Azerbaijan
Vettel reprises Verstappen's role, surviving a late-charge from the Mercedes on his daring choice to stick with mediums to the end. Verstappen's poor fourth place sets up a tight championship battle.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 76
Bottas 70
Hamilton and Vettel 66
Round 5: Spain
Verstappen takes his second win in three races, which should be setting up Red Bull to romp to the constructors' title. Unfortunately, Gasly. Due to this setback, Mercedes is ahead, tied with Ferrari at 158 compared to Red Bull's 123.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 101
Vettel 84
Bottas 80
Round 6: Monaco
Vettel pulls closer to Verstappen with his second win, while Leclerc's DNF knocks him into the Gasly corner of the top six. The Williamses finish ahead of Giovinazzi, their first non-reverse-one-two.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 119
Vettel 109
Bottas 92
Round 7: Canada
Vettel and Verstappen continue to trade blows in the title chase. The Mercedes are lurking behind, while Leclerc and Gasly are trying to recover from DNFs. The Williamses and Giovinazzi have finished every race...out of the points.
Driver Pts.
Vettel 134
Verstappen 131
Hamilton 103
Round 8: France
Hamilton finally wins, snapping a seven-race streak off the top step of the podium. The championship frontrunners are out of the top three entirely, fourth and fifth. Poor Bottas continues to fade.
Driver Pts.
Vettel 144
Verstappen 143
Hamilton 128
Round 9: Austria
In a race with no retirements, Leclerc's third second-place finish in a row sends him firmly into title contention again, with only Gasly truly out of the battle among the Big Three teams. Giovinazzi gets his point.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 168
Vettel 159
Hamilton 138
Bottas 129
Leclerc 128
Round 10: Great Britain
...Leclerc does know there are places other than second, right? Whatever works, I guess. A storyline that flew under the radar in real 2019: Perez has gone six straight races without scoring points. That's pretty rough for a consistent driver like him.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 180
Hamilton 163
Vettel 159
Leclerc 146
Bottas 139
Round 11: Germany
A topsy-turvy German grand prix turns the championship on its head. Verstappen's win sets him miles ahead of the field, while the Mercedes fail to score. Both Williamses score, though!
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 205
Vettel 177
Hamilton 163
Leclerc 147
Bottas 139
Round 12: Hungary
Obviously, Verstappen wouldn't have pitted to set the fastest lap if he were still ahead, but oh well. Such are the limits of very stupid thought experiments. Red Bull promotes Albon, who has 16 points to Kvyat's 27.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 223
Vettel 192
Hamilton 188
Leclerc 158
Bottas 141
Round 13: Belgium
Verstappen's race-ending crash injects chaos into the tussle for the title. Perez scores for the first time since Baku. Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen, and the Williamses are the only drivers to finish every race.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 223
Vettel 207
Hamilton 206
Leclerc 183
Bottas 153
Round 14: Italy
Chaos strikes again as our competitors careen into the stretch run. Verstappen is eighth, Vettel thirteenth, and Ricciardo stands on the podium. Since this didn't actually happen, we can't say for sure if he toasted the Monza crowd with a shoey, but...well, come on. Of course he did.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 227
Hamilton 218
Leclerc 208
Vettel 207
Bottas 171
Round 15: Singapore
If Verstappen slips up again, it'll be neck-and-neck-and-neck-and-neck in the race, as Hamilton, Vettel, and Leclerc are separated by a scant ten points. Ricciardo has either finished third or fourteenth in the last four races.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 242
Vettel 232
Leclerc 226
Hamilton 222
Bottas 173
Round 16: Russia
Vettel's campaign takes a serious blow with a critical engine failure, leading to a DNF. Max is back on top of the world, though Leclerc takes his third win in four races, and he's catching up at top speed.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 260
Leclerc 251
Hamilton 237
Vettel 232
Bottas 185
Round 17: Japan
With one little tap, everything changes. Leclerc's Ferrari brushes Verstappen's Red Bull on the opening lap, resulting in the latter retiring and the former finishing sixth as Vettel wins from Bottas and Hamilton. Suddenly, just eight points separate the top four.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 260
Leclerc 259
Vettel 257
Hamilton 252
Bottas 203
Round 18: Mexico
After eighteen races, it's all coming down to this. Verstappen's blazing start, Vettel and Hamilton's consistent podiums, Leclerc's magical transformation: all have set up a four-way title fight to rival 2010. Three races to go; fifteen points between them.
Driver Pts.
Vettel 282
Leclerc 277
Verstappen 268
Hamilton 267
Bottas 215
Round 19: Disunited States
Vettel had won two races following his engine failure in Suzuka, but he falls from second to fourth with another mechanical issue, this time a suspension failure. That sends Hamilton and Leclerc on as the primary challengers to Verstappen, who has nearly reached 300 points.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 293
Leclerc 289
Vettel 282
Hamilton 282
Bottas 233
Round 20: Brazil
Oh.
Hamilton finishes fifteenth, the Ferraris crash into each other, and Bottas DNFs to hand the championship to Verstappen, a race ahead of schedule. Gasly takes his third podium, but in a Toro Rosso, not a Red Bull.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 318
Leclerc 289
Vettel 282
Hamilton 282
Bottas 233
Round 21: Abu Dhabi
With a championship surprisingly wrapped up, Verstappen sits back and relaxes his way to a second-place finish as Hamilton wins for the fourth time all year. Leclerc takes home third in the championship as Bottas straggles into fifth. Ferrari beat out Mercedes for constructors' honours.
Driver Pts.
Verstappen 336
Hamilton 307
Leclerc 304
Vettel 292
Bottas 245

Conclusion
Well, perhaps I should've seen this coming.
Verstappen had the luxury of nobody in the sister car to bother him for most of the year. He was almost always close behind when a Mercedes or Ferrari won, and most importantly of all, he and Red Bull negotiated the madness of several chaotic weekends with aplomb. All that led to one of the best drivers in the sport pulling away when the rest of the field collapsed behind him in Brazil.
Others were helped, too. Vettel was just fine, hanging tight enough that he might have been second, were it not for those two car failures near season's end. Gasly ended up sixth in the standings with a pair of podiums in the Red Bull. And every driver, even Russell, scored.
Fifteen seconds a race comes out to about 0.25 seconds per lap. With new regulations coming soon, that's a hit Mercedes could very well take. Does that mean we have title fights such as this in our future?
Well, it's always nice to hope.

Full WDC and WCC standings
submitted by ItsAesthus to formula1

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