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SWI Preview
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Top Market News - Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2020

Rotation from growth to value continues:
  • Value outperformed growth by another ~240 bps on Tuesday after Monday's 450 bp gap, which reversed four months of growth outperformance in one session. Came after favorable coronavirus vaccine news, which helped the rotation continue today. A vaccine breakthrough has long been flagged as the most powerful tailwind for a sustained rotation following the longstanding upside leadership of growth and momentum factors. There has also been some focus on positive economic and earnings surprise momentum as drivers, while analysts have highlighted extreme positioning and valuation divergences as well. In addition, while a split Congress has taken the likelihood of meaningful fiscal stimulus off the table, additional support is still coming. While value and cyclicals do face headwinds from worsening coronavirus trends, growth has also seemed to run up against some very elevated expectations, a dynamic evidenced by the lackluster reaction to strong Q3 earnings.
Growth sectors extend yesterday's historic underperformance:
  • Growth sectors underperformed again. Tech, consumer discretionary and communication services were the only sectors lower with the FAANGs mostly down. Software, semis, restaurants, travel and leisure also among weaker groups. Healthcare an outperformer on gains across pharma and distributors, while hospitals mostly extended yesterday's gains. Financials ahead with insurers the best group, offsetting weakness across banks, particularly moneycenters. Materials led by chemicals. Industrials saw broad gains, particularly A&D, rails, and electricals/multis. Consumer staples ahead with drug stores, tobacco, beverages among the best groups. Energy the best performer WTI higher as IOCs extended Monday's big gains.
Busy day of Fedspeak:
  • Dallas' Kaplan (voter) told Bloomberg the next two quarters will be difficult, but he sees a strong 2021, expecting 3.5% growth. In testimony to a Senate committee, Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles said bank strength remains intact with high liquidity and capital levels, Boston's Rosengren (non-voter) said in a speech policymakers should watch for imbalances as they emerge, and that excessive risk-taking could prolong economic distress, based on previous cycles. San Francisco's Daly (non-voter) told CNBC that the Fed is in discussions over what more it can do around asset purchases and how the bank should plan communications around asset purchases moving forward. The Fed is currently purchasing ~$120B a month in bonds, though many believe it could increase the amount and/or change the composition of purchases, though WSJ noted broad skepticism that strategy would do much given already-low rates.
McConnell repeats call for limited stimulus package:
  • Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) on Monday called for limited stimulus bill by year-end, in the wake of positive news on a coronavirus vaccine and falling unemployment (Bloomberg). Also said this afternoon he will be speaking with House Leader Pelosi, though looking for highly targeted deal (The Hill). Other Republican senators warned getting a deal done in the lame duck session will be hard and signaled openness to wrapping a stimulus package into a spending bill needed to avoid a government shutdown on 11-Dec. Elsewhere, WSJ noted President-elect Biden expected to play bigger role in stimulus discussion during lame duck to pave path for agreement before he takes office. While Senate Republicans have been focused on a bill worth ~$500B, House Democrats have insisted it must be in excess of $2T. Odds of a stimulus bill before 2021 further complicated by Trump's refusal to concede and run-off elections in Georgia in early January that could determine control of Senate next year.
Vaccine breakthrough also brings key unanswered questions, logistical challenges:
  • Bloomberg noted that amid all the excitement surrounding news the coronavirus vaccine candidate from Pfizer (PFE-US ) and BioNTech (BNTX-US ) was more than 90% effective in late-stage trials, there are still a number of issues to be sorted out. It highlighted uncertainty over how long the vaccine will confer protection and how many will benefit. Also pointed out the headline number says little about what kind of cases are being prevented. Added that vaccines like Pfizer's must be stored at ultra-cold temperatures. WSJ also discussed the myriad logistical challenges surrounding production and distribution. Pointed out that even at a much better than expected efficacy rate of 90%, at least three-quarters of the population would have to be inoculated to achieve herd immunity and life may not return to normal until 2022.
Checking in on the bullish narrative:
  • As has been the case for the better part of the last seven or eight months, the biggest tailwind for stocks seems to be the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response to the coronavirus pandemic, with BofA pegging the combined stimulus at over $21T. Vaccine optimism has also played a meaningful role, with recent news of a near-term breakthrough driving a rotation to value and cyclical plays. At the same time, there are thoughts that growth factors are likely to be protected by favorable secular themes. Resilient corporate earnings, largely a function of operating leverage, have been another widely discussed bright spot. The removal of the election overhang has also helped and the likelihood of a split Congress and no meaningful shift in tax and regulatory policy has overshadowed earlier hopes for more significant coronavirus and infrastructure stimulus.
Checking on the bearish narrative:
  • While stimulus has been the big driver of the bullish narrative for stocks, there continue to be concerns about depleted monetary policy arsenals and worries central banks are increasingly is pushing on a string. In addition, there is no appetite for meaningful fiscal stimulus in a Republican controlled Senate. Worsening coronavirus trends have been largely overshadowed by vaccine optimism but represent a headwind on growth, even without a return to the draconian lockdown measures seen early on in the pandemic. A rotation out of growth has some broader market implications given the extent to which the S&P 500 is concentrated in big tech. There are also potential risks from the bond market given the massive inflows driven by a reach for yield. While earnings beat rates have been strong, they have benefited from bombed-out expectations and the bar is moving higher.
Supreme Court signals it is unlikely to strike down Obamacare
  • Politico, the NY Times and other outlets discussed how the Supreme Court on Tuesday signaled that Obamacare would likely survive its third major legal challenge. Noted that at least five justices, including two members of the court's conservative majority, suggested the individual mandate was severable from the rest of the law. Other conservative justices also expressed doubt about whether Congress' decision to scrap the penalty for failing to secure health insurance because it could be no longer be justified as a tax, caused any harm to the plaintiffs. While the case has been widely viewed as weak, there still have been concerns about the fate of Obamacare under the court's enhanced conservative majority. This development has driven the outperformance of managed care (particularly managed Medicare) and hospital stocks.
Amazon under regulatory scrutiny in Europe:
  • European Commission filed charges against Amazon (AMZN-US ) on Tuesday after it concluded it breached antitrust rules by using third-party sellers' data for its own benefit. EU launched probe into Amazon in June 2019 and WSJ reported in June of this year it was planning formal antitrust challenges. Brussels said today it is also launching a second investigation into Amazon's e-commerce processes. While big tech has come under heightened regulatory scrutiny in both the US and Europe, it has not been much on overhang on equity sentiment as the group has been a big beneficiary of its leverage to secular growth and disruption themes, several aspects of which have been accelerated by the coronavirus. The bigger threat to the group from near-term perspective seems to be a vaccine-driven rotation from these very crowded longs to under-owned value and cyclical plays.
NextEra rebuffed by Evergy, Lowe's not in talks to acquire HD Supply, Justice Department clears Uber purchase of Postmates:
  • Reuters reported that NextEra (NEE-US ), the world's largest producer of solar and wind energy, made a ~$15B all-stock offer to acquire US power utility Evergy (EVRG-US ). However, Evergy rejected the offer and it is unclear whether NextEra, which was also recently rebuffed buy Duke Energy (DUK-US ), will make a new approach. Lowe's (LOW-US ) said in a statement that it is not in discussions with HD Supply (HDS-US ) about a transaction. Followed earlier Bloomberg report that said the companies were discussing a deal. Axios cited a source familiar with the deal who said the Justice Department has cleared Uber's (UBER-US ) $2.65B all-stock deal to acquire food delivery company Postmates. Adobe (ADBE-US ) confirmed agreement to acquire privately held Workfront, a work management platform for marketers, for $1.5B.
Post-election transition slowed by legal challenges:
  • Axios noted that President Trump has refused to concede the election to President-elect Biden, reiterating allegations of widespread voter fraud and corruption despite a lack of specific evidence. Added that his claims have been shot down by Democratic and Republican secretaries of state. Bloomberg also discussed how Trump's legal challenges are unlikely to gain any meaningful traction. However, NY Times pointed out that leading Republicans have coalesced around Trump's strategy. In addition, the AP reported Attorney General Barr has authorized US attorneys to investigate alleged voter fraud. Reuters said the Biden transition team is considering legal action to force the General Services Administration to designate him the winner so that it can begin accessing federal resources needed to ensure an orderly transfer of power.
Political fight brewing over whether to extend Fed's emergency facilities:
  • NY Times discussed how a political fight is brewing over whether to extend the Fed's emergency loan programs, which expire on 31-Dec. Paper said that while the Fed might be inclined to keep the programs in effect, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has signaled he would prefer to end the one that purchases municipal bonds, and has come under heightened pressure from Republicans to allow all five of the Treasury-funded programs to lapse. However, some Democrats had been looking to the municipal program as a backup option if Congress fails to pass additional funds for state and local governments. Paper highlighted some debate about the potential market impact of ending the programs. While they have seen little use, they have been a big part of the powerful Fed signaling effect that quickly helped repair credit markets earlier this year.
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