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Nov/21/2020 news wrap-up: \\ War in Artsakh (Karabakh) \\ Artsakh's recognition efforts \\ 7 regions \\ Russian envoy visits Armenia \\ COVID stats, vaccines, Russian aid \\ politics & demonstrations \\ aid for Artsakh refugees approved; 7000 return homes \\ Davtyan vs Hakobyan \\ troops & medals

Your 8-minute Saturday report in 2031 words.

Artsakh Republic's recognition

A group of French Senators had earlier drafted a bill to urge the government to recognize Artsakh. It'll be placed on the floor next week. The Senators believe Artsakh's long-term security is possible only if it's officially recognized as a state.
The city council of French Saint-Étienne has urged the govt to officially recognize Artsakh. They'll also donate 30k as humanitarian aid.

November 21st politics

10:38: PM Pashinyan met the military leadership and presented the new Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan, who served as MoD in 1999 and acted as PM's security adviser.
"We need to analyze where the mistakes were and draw conclusions. The army needs reforms, new strategy, new weapons," said PM and thanked the departing MoD Tonoyan.
11:20 - 17:11: Russian diplomatic envoy visited Armenia. PM Pashinyan met Russian MoD Shoygu then MFA Lavrov. PM thanked them, stating that Armenia has always received Russia's support throughout the war. "We hope to strengthen our ties with Russia not only in security but also in the military-engineering field. The military-political situation in the region is different now. It needs to be assessed in detail."
Russian MoD presented details about the completion of the peacekeeper deployment and said they're working on bringing back the refugees safely. The topic of peacekeepers' settlement and their jobs will be discussed, in addition to the military-engineering cooperation mentioned by Pashinyan.
Russian MoD met the newly appointed Armenian MoD to discuss Artsakh. They signed papers.
Russian MFA Lavrov said, "We are grateful for the traditional warm welcome in Yerevan and reaffirm our support for the fraternal Armenian people. My colleagues are ready to present our approaches to economic, energy, and humanitarian cooperation, including our common efforts in the fight against COVID."
Lavrov called it unacceptable that [unnamed entities] in Armenia and abroad are attempting to cancel the November 9th peace Statement. "The signed statement is the only way to stabilize the situation. The govt of Armenia has stated that it helped to save lives and that the Armenian govt is committed to the further implementation of the agreement."
Emergency Ministers and deputy Prime Ministers of AM and RU held a meeting to discuss humanitarian issues.
President Sarkissian met MFA Lavrov. "Armenian people are grateful to Russia for its support during difficult times. Convey the gratitude to the President of the Russian Federation because if it wasn't for his and your efforts, we would still be losing young men today."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035538.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035547.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035555.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035545.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035556.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035562.html , https://youtu.be/borqV1wWWwQ , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035563.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035566.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614788.html
13:29: the court has released several opposition figures from the temporary detention. They were earlier detained for violating the Martial Law by organizing demonstrations.
https://news.am/arm/news/614762.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614825.html
17:21: the 16 opposition parties continue to call for PM Pashinyan's resignation. A demonstration was organized. "Ministers were changed, but changing someone does not solve the crucial issue. This does not divert our attention from our main demand for PM's resignation," said an ARF leader Gegham Manukyan.
The opposition said they won't resume the war if they come to power.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035567.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614805.html , https://factor.am/312740.html
17:29: former regime ally and opposition "Hayreniq" leader Arthur Vanetsyan has criticized Pashinyan for not giving away the 7 regions to Azerbaijan sooner.
Vanetsyan: You should have publicly presented the deal about giving away the 7 regions, and if you were against it, you should have resigned so someone else could come and give the regions to solve the issue.
[Context: when Azeris were still in the southern Fizuli region, Armenia was asked to give away all 7 regions to Azerbaijan in exchange for peace (no Artsakh status). Since the battle intensity was subsiding down and things weren't looking critical at the time, Pashinyan and the army decided to continue the fight with the hope to defend the 7 regions from being given away.]

Artak Davtyan vs Movses Hakobyan / accusations & refutals

On Thursday a fired/resigned General Movses Hakobyan gave a press conference during which he criticized the govt and army leadership, and accused them of series of wrong decisions. You can check out that link for details about his claims. [During the press conference, he sounded politically motivated and criticized non-military figures and media outlets that are against the former regime].
The Defense Ministry then responded to Movses Hakobyan and accused him of lying on multiple claims, and also revealing some top-secret information about weapon purchases.
One of the people whom Movses Hakobyan criticized was his replacement General Artak Davtyan. The latter gave an interview and refuted the claims made by Movses Hakobyan.
Redditor VavoTK has translated the points made by Artak Davtyan here
Redditor's post:
He [Artak Davtyan] said that as chief of the operative department, he did not change the purchases planned before as Hakobyan claims. In fact, other than the already-signed contracts in the past 2 years, more ammunition, artillery equipment, MANPADS were purchased. Everything was including the SU 30-SM airplanes were bought in addition to what was already planned, and no budget was redirected in order to buy them.
Hakobyan's claim that he had made sure we have VERBA MANPADS is false, and suggested the general colonel does not say things out of thin air.
Regarding Hakobyan's idea to buy more TOR instead of OSA air defense systems. New TOR (and their equipment) systems should have been brought to Armenia now as in right now after the war according to the contract. They had accelerated the process. There were plans of buying a lot of other anti-air equipment. However the OSA systems were bought because we needed anti-air equipment that can be used immediately while for TOR we need training, we need ammunition, etc.
Davtyan asked why was Hakobyan even allowed the command center in Artsakh. Hakobyan's role, the department that he is the chief of, does not include him being in the command center and giving suggestions. He should have been concerned with what he was responsible for.
During Hakobyan's time as chief of staff, more military personnel was cut from the army, and during Davtyan's time new personnel was hired.
Regarding Hakobyan's quote that he didn't go to the front because he has qualms against General Samvel Babayan. Even if there was a small chance of helping your homeland, Hakobyan should have gone there regardless of his personal feelings towards anyone.
Addendum from Redditor: Unlike Movses Hakobyan, Artak Davtyan refused to give any political assessments, any personal assessments of our civilians and politicians. Which is always, always better coming from a military commander

troops, medals, and casualties

1678 out of 2425 deceased soldiers have been identified so far. The process to exchange bodies continues. 350 bodies were found since November 13th. Three Armenian civilians were killed by Azeri soldiers in Shushi. During the humanitarian searches, a wounded policeman was found alive near Shushi forests; he hid there for 6 days.
https://news.am/arm/news/614868.html , https://factor.am/312820.html
Families of missing soldiers gathered in front of a military facility in Ejmiatsin with hope and demand to learn information. They accused the local commander of returning home without bringing any news about 34 of his missing subordinates.
A family member said some of the volunteers were ill-equipped and without bulletproof vests before being sent to the front lines. A man says his relative's bus, which was transporting the troops to the front lines, was ambushed on a road. "They drove the bus through the Azeri troops then the shootout began."
"My husband and 33 others stayed to fight while the commander fled," said a woman, referring to the aforementioned incident in Zangilan (south).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035584.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614748.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614768.html , https://youtu.be/OEgnn7GlH1Y?t=5
HR Ombudsmen of Armenian and Artsakh prepared the fourth report on human rights violations by Azerbaijan between November 4-18. It mentions the mistreatment of Armenian POWs by Azerbaijan.
The army awarded several soldiers for acts of heroism. Lt. Colonel Seryoja Avinyan organized effective counter-attacks in the north, while Armen Vardayan shot 3 tanks and 4 armored vehicles. Several others used artillery to cause heavy damage to enemy infantry.
Full list: https://news.am/arm/news/614846.html

news & daily եռուզեռ from Artsakh

7,000 Artsakh refugees have returned home so far.
Artsakh President Arayik: Artsakh will continue to keep its independent status while enjoying the active support of all Armenians and the Russian Federation. To build our bright and secure future, we must look forward shoulder to shoulder. After the hard test, we have to straighten our backs.
With some restrictions, we will subsidize the citizens' utility bills for water, gas, electricity, internet, telephone for a year. We will also give furniture and appliances.
I visited Martuni today. The local admins showed me the infrastructure damage. I instructed them to launch the renovation work. We held a meeting with local municipality leaders to discuss the return to normal daily life.
Russian peacekeepers began delivering water to three settlements in the Askeran region where the underground wells had dried out. "We will continuously help the local population. The role of peacekeepers isn't just guarding the borders," said a peacekeeping official.
Russia has sent the second humanitarian 35-vehicle cargo fleet from Rostov to Artsakh.
The ruins of the ancient Armenian city Tigranocerta, build in 1 B.C., is located in one of the 7 adjacent regions that will go under Azeri control. An archaeologist believes that the Azeri government will try to continue the excavations and present the new findings as "Caucasian Albanian".
However, the archeological findings that have so far been found during excavations, have been evacuated to a safe place.
The Armenian government has approved a new aid package for Artsakh refugees who had to be resettled. A one-time $623 aid will be given to each resident, including children. The money comes from the All Armenia Fund (Himnadram).

COVID stats & vaccines & Russia

+3207 tested. +1193 infected. +31 deaths. +2075 healed. 29581 active.
Russia has donated another mobile truck equipped with the capacity to test 1,600 COVID samples a day. It can also detect 300 other viruses. Earlier, Russia donated a COVID-truck that served Russian soldiers and local residents.
The chief of Russian consumer protection agency RosPotrebNadzor was part of the diplomatic delegation that visited Armenia. Healthcare Minister Torosyan thanked her for the support.
RosPotrebNadzor chief Anna Popova noted a positive COVID stabilization and a reduction trend in Armenia. "Despite all the difficulties in Armenia, you, dear colleagues, can achieve good results. It is obvious today." She invited Armenian healthcare experts to visit a COVID conference in St. Petersburg next month.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035537.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035552.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1035560.html , https://med.news.am/arm/news/27733/orakan-minchev-1600-hetazotutyun-rospotrebnadzor-y-hayastanin-sharzhakan-kensalaboratoria-e-nvirel.html , https://news.am/arm/news/614797.html
Russia sent "Sputnik V" COVID vaccine samples to Armenia for testing.
Armenian engineers from the "YEA Engineering" company have created a lung ventilator. The High-Tech Minister says the prototype device is being tested and will be ready by mid-December.
The efforts began during the first COVID wave. It is part of the "NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory" project. The Armenian company was among the 28 winners, out of 330 applicants, that received a license from NASA.

other news from Armenia

Boxer 56KG Ruben Aslikyan won bronze in the European Youth championship.
Aurora and IDeA foundations continue to aid Artsakh refugees. 14 programs with a $116,000 budget have been approved for families who lost their homes.

You can help Artsakh & Armenia

www.1000plus.am (soldiers' medical help)
www.HimnaDram.org (for Artsakh & Armenia)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible)
Prior events:
Nov 20, Nov 19, Nov 18, Nov 17, Nov 16, Nov 15, Nov 14, Nov 13, Nov 12, Nov 11, Nov 10, Nov 9, Nov 8, Nov 7, Nov 6, Nov 5, Nov 4, Nov 3, Nov 2, Nov 1, Oct 31, Oct 30, Oct 29, Oct 28, Oct 27, Oct 26, Oct 25, Oct 24, Oct 23, Oct 22, Oct 21, Oct 20, Oct 19, Oct 18, Oct 17, Oct 16, Oct 15, Oct 14, Oct 13, Oct 12, Oct 11 , Oct 10, Oct 9 , Oct 8, Oct 7,Oct 6, Oct 5, Oct 4, Oct 3, Oct 2, Oct 1, Sep 30, Sep 29, Sep 28, Sep 27
submitted by ar_david_hh to armenia

How Ray Kurzweil's 2020 (2019) Predictions are Faring (Part II)

The response to the previous post was much larger than expected. Mostly it was positive though there were criticisms. Rather than responding to those, I decided to finish the assessments of his predictions (it'll probably require a third part) and go back to them, later (though I want everyone to know that I did read every comment!). This is mostly because the amount of time to engage those comments is equivalent or greater to the amount of time to make the next segment of the post (given that it's likely the responses would have responses and so on) and I've already promised to make this post in a timely manner.
I was only part way through Ray's predictions in The Age of Spiritual Machines (TASM), so this post will be another chunk of those. The last post will be the remainder from TASM and a review of predictions in The Singularity is Near for this time period (Again, this will be based on whether people still seem interested).
If you haven't read the first part of this review, it's here.
Let's continue.

The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999) - Part II:

Prediction: Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
Verdict: Yes. The key here is the word 'preferred'. Tablets have not become cheap and ubiquitous enough to be the dominant form of document viewing, but tablets and eReaders are far and away a superior way to organgize and peruse this information. I admit there is some debate here, however.
Prediction: Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
Verdict: Wrong. I would say we're close to this being true, but still far enough away that even with my apparent graciousness I cannot say this is correct.
Prediction: Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
Verdict: Mostly Wrong. Again, he got the fact of the tech's existence correct. After all, we have Udemy, Udacity, and other online course packages where there's a mentor but everything else is "computer simulated". Of course, there could be some argument over how adaptable this online software is. However, seen from a 1999 vantage point software that can grade a quiz and give suggestions on improvements based on right and wrong answers could be considered to be "adaptable". Also, if you count distance learning via coporations and such, he may be on the verge of being correct: https://techjury.net/blog/elearning-statistics/#gref.
Prediction: Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
Verdict: Absolutely. Many students have more conversation or contact in Blackboard and via email and apps like WhatsApp than they do in the classroom. Especially given the current pandemic.
Prediction: All students have access to computers.
Verdict: Technically correct. Again, given the power of a phone at this point in time it can be considered a computer. And almost all schools have, at the very least, a computer lab. Whether students have enough access to computers and, more importantly nowadays, a good internet connection, is a different question. But generally they do have access to computers.
Prediction: Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
Verdict: Wrong. However, it must be said that the only error he made was the word "majority". If he had said "twice as much time as now" or "a significant portion of their time" he would have been correct. Wave upon wave of workers are going back to school, taking online classes, being retrained within their corporate careers, and learning new skills on YouTube. It used to be that once you graduated or learned a trade, you were set. Now, every industry is changing and being impacted by technology so much that most employees expect additional training at least a couple of times a year.
Prediction: Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
Verdict: Correct. https://irisvision.com/electronic-glasses-for-the-blind-and-visually-impaired/. https://www.letsenvision.com/blog/envision-announces-ai-powered-smart-glasses-for-the-blind-and-visually-impaired
Prediction: Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
Verdict: Correct. https://www.brightfocus.org/maculaarticle/latest-developments-retinal-implants
Prediction: Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
Verdict: Correct. Music into tactile sensations. Speech into Text. Cochlear implants.
Prediction: People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
Verdict: Correct. Nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robots. More on nerve stimulation. More on exoskeletal robots.
Prediction: Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (e.g. Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
Verdict: Correct. Restored motion and touch. Restored vision.
Prediction: Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
Verdict: Correct. Check out the history portion of the Google Translate Wikipedia page. Also, this.
Prediction: Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist.
Verdict: Correct. See above.
Prediction: Anyone can wirelessly access the internet with wearable devices such as computerized glasses, contacts, and watches.
Verdict: Correct. Anyone can, so long as they have said devices.
Prediction: Traditional computers and communication devices such as desktop PCs, laptops, and cell phones still exist, but most of their functions can be performed by wearable gadgets. Examples include reading books, listening to music, watching movies, playing games, and teleconferencing.
Verdict: Essentially Correct. You certainly can read a book or article, listen to music, or watch a movie on your smart watch. Not really preferred, though. However, if you count VR headsets (and yes, they are a wearable technology) then it's a much stronger 'yes'.
Prediction: Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (e.g. tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
Verdict: Correct. Surprisingly, the tech for virtual sex does exist, though it is not in common use. Full body haptic suits and gloves also exist, though they are primitive.
Prediction: Just as visual and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
Verdict: Wrong. No, Ray. Wishful thinking. We're at least a year or two off from even a prototype of this becoming available. However things are proceeding fast with haptics so it could appear in some form by the end of 2021 (which I would put in the realm of "essentially correct" following the rules laid out in part one of this post).
Prediction: Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
Verdict: Correct. It certainly feels like we keep coming right to that brink, but the lights stay on and the world machine continues to function in general.
Prediction: The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
Verdict: Sort of. This comes down to whether you consider Amazon.com a "simulated retailer". However, this is in its nascent phase in physical stores, too. As usual, the place Kurzweil comes into question is "vast majority".
Prediction: Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
Verdict: Sort of. Between roomba, drones, robotic pets and other toys, and various garage tools with smart chips and sensors embedded robots exist all throughout a normal household in tiny and invisible ways. If you add smart home tech such as smart thermostats, smart locks and garage doors, and smart security systems then the result could definitely be called "ubiquitous". However, there is some debate here and that is acknowledged.
Prediction: Computers do most of the vehicle driving—humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
Verdict: Wrong. Though computer assisted driving is common and self-driving is on the horizon, humans being banned from driving unassisted by A.I. is a long ways off.
Edit: Changed to 'sort of'. It was pointed out to me that this depends on what you call 'driving'. In 1999, things like turning on the lights automatically and various driver assist functions would likely have fallen under the heading of 'driving'. Humans, at this point, are responsible for steering and accelerating (if you brake incorrectly any car bought today would probably brake for you.)
Prediction: Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
Verdict: Wrong. Though Ray was able to predict self-driving, he got the mechanism incorrect.
Prediction: Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
Verdict: Correct. Shockingly on point, actually. Kitty Hawk. Uber. The key here is his prudence. He says they merely 'exist'. They do. Because they're so dangerous and far too complex for humans, they are indeed primarily controlled by A.I.
Prediction: Most decisions made by humans involve consultation with machine intelligence. For example, a doctor may seek the advice of a digital assistant. A lawyer might utilize a virtual researcher. Or a shopper may receive recommendations from a software program that has learned his or her shopping habits.
Verdict: Wrong. Again, most of the predictions Ray gets wrong aren't wrong in their entirety, only in their degree. These technologies do indeed exist in all of the areas Ray mentioned (law, medicine, as for shopping habits, we've all been on Amazon), but they are not ubiquitous to the point where it can be said to effect "most decisions".
Prediction: While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
Verdict: Ding, ding, ding. CORRECT. If you have any doubts about this, you have merely to glance at the hype surrounding GPT-3 and the fact that people are already marrying their robots. Difficult to prove because people who feel this way know they will be mocked if they voice this feeling. They are correct to have this fear as the evidence points to them being wrong. People in this subreddit who know a little bit about what is behind this technology might not make this error, but I think most of us realize that there are many people who would (have) talked to GPT-3 and be totally convinced of its humanity. Further, because of moving goal posts, GPT-3 and its ilk are not considered to be able to pass the Turing Test by most people who understand the technology on a deep level. Just as Ray predicted.
I think that's a good prediction to end things on. Again, where Ray falls short when he does have a miss is generally the degree of his prediction and not the substance.
Just like last time, I'll post the final part within a day or two if this one proves popular. Thanks for reading, everyone!
submitted by jenkinrocket to singularity

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